Excellent post. My son scored 258 and wasnt offered a place at 2 of the GS choices. Not holding my hopes up of getting anything in the WL for CHB or KEFWS.
Something else I’ve been thinking about which might be of interest to those interested in working out their child's chance of a waiting list place...
The lower the cut-off score for a particular school, the fewer marks the admitted score is likely to drop on the waiting list. The reason for this is the ‘normal’ distribution of scores (bell curve) is around a mean of about 200. So, there will be larger numbers of students around 200, 210 etc, and once you get up to 250 there won’t be many.
We don’t have the score breakdown for Birmingham, but for Warwickshire we do (https://www.warwickshire.gov.uk/directo ... -11-scores), so we can look at that data as an example. Here are a few figures at 10-mark intervals:
•3 people on 260
•7 people on 250
•15 people on 240
•22 people on 230
•27 people on 220
•31 people on 210
•59 people on 200
Of course, the numbers for Birmingham would be higher so there will be more people on each score. Also bear in mind that many people on each score might be happy with their other school choice so the actual number of students that have to decline a place will be much fewer than this.
There are other factors such as popularity of the school (those at the top of the food chain will have fewer people declining places – they are also the high scoring schools for obvious reasons) and of course the KE catchment priority score rule which skews the data on those schools (because anyone in catchment scoring 224+ will get a place, with no differentiation between 224 and 275+).
But I think this is relevant when looking at the Sutton Coldfield and Walsall/Wolverhampton schools, and to some extent the Handsworth schools and Aston (as they have a good amount of movement and quite a lot of places for out of catchment children.)
If I've made glaring errors in my assumptions, hopefully someone will come along and correct me. I'm no statistician - just an interested parent!
[/quote]
Something else I’ve been thinking about which might be of interest to those interested in working out their child's chance of a waiting list place...
The lower the cut-off score for a particular school, the fewer marks the admitted score is likely to drop on the waiting list. The reason for this is the ‘normal’ distribution of scores (bell curve) is around a mean of about 200. So, there will be larger numbers of students around 200, 210 etc, and once you get up to 250 there won’t be many.
We don’t have the score breakdown for Birmingham, but for Warwickshire we do (https://www.warwickshire.gov.uk/directo ... -11-scores), so we can look at that data as an example. Here are a few figures at 10-mark intervals:
•3 people on 260
•7 people on 250
•15 people on 240
•22 people on 230
•27 people on 220
•31 people on 210
•59 people on 200
Of course, the numbers for Birmingham would be higher so there will be more people on each score. Also bear in mind that many people on each score might be happy with their other school choice so the actual number of students that have to decline a place will be much fewer than this.
There are other factors such as popularity of the school (those at the top of the food chain will have fewer people declining places – they are also the high scoring schools for obvious reasons) and of course the KE catchment priority score rule which skews the data on those schools (because anyone in catchment scoring 224+ will get a place, with no differentiation between 224 and 275+).
But I think this is relevant when looking at the Sutton Coldfield and Walsall/Wolverhampton schools, and to some extent the Handsworth schools and Aston (as they have a good amount of movement and quite a lot of places for out of catchment children.)
If I've made glaring errors in my assumptions, hopefully someone will come along and correct me. I'm no statistician - just an interested parent!
[/quote]
Statistics: Posted by Ranjit Singh — Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:28 pm